Blog: How Education Reform Can Help Address the Demographic Crisis

The admission campaign is underway. For the fourth year, it has been taking place during the full-scale invasion, and for the fourth time, graduates are taking the National Multi-Subject Test (NMT) instead of the traditional External Independent Evaluation. According to the Ministry of Education and Science, 312,000 participants registered for the NMT, nearly 21,000 of whom are graduates currently abroad. The total number of school graduates this year amounts to 360,000.

The decline in the number of graduates is a consequence of the demographic crisis that began back in the 1990s and was later exacerbated by economic difficulties and the challenges associated with the occupation of Crimea and the eastern regions of our country.

According to Oleksandr Hladun, Deputy Director for Research at the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, last year almost 177,000 children were born in Ukraine, while more than 495,000 Ukrainians died. In other words, mortality is three times higher than the birth rate. The statistics, unfortunately, are devastating…

With the onset of the full-scale invasion, infrastructure problems were added to the mix. As stated by Oleksii Kuleba, Deputy Prime Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine and Minister for Communities and Territories Development, during his speech at the “Education of the New Ukraine” forum, more than 4,000 educational institutions have been destroyed or damaged since 2022.

However, optimism was added by Olena Kovalska, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, who also took part in the forum, noting that: “this year it is planned to open or renovate more than 1,500 educational spaces.” And this already looks like a trend, as Ms. Kovalska stated that in 2024–2025 the state invested 22.56 billion UAH in educational infrastructure — the largest “transformation of educational space and content in the entire history of our education.”

A few more important achievements were highlighted by Olena Kovalska during the education forum. As of May 2025, 15 underground school-shelters and 53 workshops in colleges have been built, 126 new school kitchens and cafeterias have been equipped, and 980 Ukraine Defense Centers have been created. In the new academic year, schools will receive more than 100 modern laboratories and specialized classrooms for the New Ukrainian School: chemistry, physics, biology, geography, and mathematics classrooms, as well as STEM labs. Finally, plans are underway to build two new university campuses (with laboratories, dormitories, and stadiums) in Kyiv and Mykolaiv.

The recovery of Ukraine and the return of young people was the main message voiced at the forum. This is undoubtedly a difficult task, yet I am convinced that we are capable of accomplishing it despite all challenges. Declining birth rates, mass migration, and changes in the structure of society are leading to fewer graduates from schools, and this inevitably affects the education system as a whole.

The Ministry of Education and Science is firmly adhering to its declared course of reducing the number of higher education institutions. In January 2024, the Ministry reported that Ukraine had 170 state universities, 100 private institutions, and 40 municipal ones. Over the past year, the number of universities has decreased, and in April of this year the Ministry announced new figures: 150 universities, of which 120 fall under the Ministry’s system. The reduction occurred through the merger of smaller and financially unsustainable institutions with larger universities. The Ministry’s official target for the near future after reform is 100 state universities. Clearly, this process is a painful one; however, the Ministry is trying to make it as smooth as possible. Each year, funding for institutions that do not meet the necessary criteria decreases, while funding for those that do is increased.

At the same time, we must not only find a balance between the number of graduates and the number of higher education institutions, but also make every effort to overcome the demographic crisis.

Ukraine’s Demographic Development Strategy

On September 30, 2024, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine adopted the Demographic Development Strategy of Ukraine for the period until 2040. According to the document, the population of Ukraine is 31.1 million (in the territories where state authorities fully exercise their powers). Another 5 million or so live in temporarily occupied territories. By various estimates, between 5 and 8 million people have emigrated from Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

Since it is extremely difficult to predict how long the war will last, the Strategy provides two forecasts for Ukraine’s population in 2035 and 2040. Two indicators are taken into account: the total population and the share of people aged 0–17 years.

Indicative Indicators for Monitoring the Implementation of the Strategy	Actual Data\*	Expected Data	Projected Data under the Inertial Scenario			Projected Data under the Reform Scenario
	2021	2024	2030	2035	2040	2030	2035	2040
Estimated Permanent Population, million people, including:	41	31,1	31,6	30,5	28,9	33,5	34	33,9
Share of People Aged 0–17 in the Permanent Population, percent	17,9	16,7	16,8	15	13,5	17	15,5	14,8

As we can see, under the inertial scenario, a population decline is projected for 2030–2040. One of the reasons is the demographic collapse we are witnessing today.

As for people under the age of 17, the Strategy also forecasts a decrease in their share, both under the inertial scenario and under the reform scenario.

The Ministry of Education and Science states that although a significant number of 17-year-olds are leaving, many graduates are also returning. Unfortunately, there are no precise statistics, making it difficult to even forecast how many applicants Ukraine will have in the coming years, given all the current factors.

In fact, all we can do now is implement family support programs in order to at least maintain the current birth rate.

Global Experience

The chart below shows the structure of OECD countries’ expenditures on family support policies in 2021, as a percentage of GDP.

As we can see, spending consists of three types of support: cash benefits, services, and tax incentives. As of 2021, the highest level of support was provided by Iceland (almost 4% of GDP), while the lowest was in Turkey (0.5%).

In Ukraine, assistance to families with children comes from funds allocated in the state budget. For the current year, this amount is 27.4 billion UAH. Of this:

• childbirth allowance — 41,280 UAH (paid in installments: 10,320 UAH immediately and 860 UAH per month over the next three years);
• for the maintenance of children in foster families — 251.7 million UAH (+325% compared to 2024);

• for the child foster care service — 155 million UAH (+218%);
• for supporting orphans in small and large foster families (family-type children’s homes) — 2.5 billion UAH (+25%);
• for the “Municipal Nanny” program — 576 million UAH (+200%).

An additional 833 million UAH is also planned for financing the construction or purchase of housing for orphans.

Of course, this amount is too small to overcome the demographic crisis, but we are a country at war, where the lion’s share of funds is allocated to defense. Therefore, no matter how difficult it may be, we must approach the problem comprehensively. In particular, we should focus on the following areas.

Development of Infrastructure and Services. Affordable kindergartens, quality healthcare, and education (preschool, school, higher) can encourage young families to have children. This is confirmed by data from the UNFPA study in 2019. According to the State Statistics Committee, in 1990 there were 24,500 preschools operating in Ukraine. As of 2024, their number has halved to 12,800. The number of children attending preschool education also decreased — from 2.4 million in 2019 to 850,000 in 2024. The percentage of children covered by preschool education is 53%, which is a very low figure. For comparison, in EU countries this indicator averages over 80%.

Flexible Working Conditions. Employers can be encouraged to introduce practices of remote work and flexible schedules for young parents, making it easier to combine careers with raising children.

Safety. Ending the war and improving the overall security situation is a key factor in increasing the birth rate. This means that even now it is necessary to create all the required safety conditions for future pupils and students during their studies. I have already addressed this issue several times in my previous blogs, so here I will briefly highlight the main aspects:

• Essential systems — electricity and water supply, sewage, ventilation, emergency exits, and more.
• Technological infrastructure — Wi-Fi and stable mobile connectivity to ensure access to online resources and educational platforms.

• Psychological comfort — ergonomic design, quality lighting, and opportunities for communication and support between students and teachers.
• Flexible learning conditions — audiovisual equipment, online lectures, and adaptation of academic schedules to the realities of the security situation.

You can read more about these and other aspects \[here] and \[here].

Tax Incentives. It is worth considering the experience of France, which as early as 1919 introduced the family coefficient system that imposed additional taxes on childless individuals and granted tax benefits to taxpayers with children, with the aim of stimulating the birth rate.

Communication with Ukrainian Youth Abroad. In December of last year, the Government restructured the Ministry for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine into the Ministry of National Unity of Ukraine. Among the Ministry’s tasks is bringing Ukrainian youth back home. It should be noted that the Ministry proposed an interesting tool — the creation of Unity Hubs. These points of presence abroad are intended to provide educational, cultural, social, and administrative support to the Ukrainian community, and most importantly, to facilitate the return of Ukrainians home. In this context, I have proposed establishing cooperation between educators and diplomats.

Conclusions

At the education forum I mentioned earlier, Yevhen Kudriavets, First Deputy Minister of Education and Science of Ukraine, presented some very interesting facts. It turns out that until the age of 25, a person spends 64% of their life (excluding sleep) in an educational environment. What does this mean? It means that during this period their worldview, communication, professional skills, competencies, and social interactions are being formed. And this is what will determine what Ukraine will look like in the future.

Today, the demographic situation in Ukraine is worse than anywhere else in Europe. The reasons are clear — migration processes, security concerns, and the economic situation. Nevertheless, we must recognize our responsibility for future generations. This is not only our moral duty but also the guarantee that our country, the Ukrainian nation, culture, education, and values will be preserved and will continue to develop.

The quality of education determines the level of knowledge and skills with which children will enter adult life. That is why today we must ensure our children have access to quality learning. After all, it is today’s youth who will overcome the challenges of the future and shape the new reality.

Published in Interfax.